Mineral-energy-international.com, A prominent Chinese coal industry group has projected that coal imports for 2024 will reach at least 500 million metric tons, surpassing previous records and market forecasts.
According to Su Huipeng, an analyst from the Coal Transportation and Distribution Association (CCTD), this milestone is achievable if the current growth trajectory in shipments continues. This figure represents a 5% increase from last year’s record of 474.42 million tons, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The anticipated volume aligns with, or even exceeds, traders’ forecasts made during a coal import conference in March, where a representative from a major southern utility estimated imports to be between 450 million and 500 million metric tons.
Looking ahead, Su indicated that imports in 2025 would likely remain close to the 500 million ton threshold, albeit potentially slightly lower.
Notably, this surge in imports occurs despite a general decline in coal demand. In the first half of the year, commercial coal consumption dropped by 1.4%, totaling 2.29 million tons, as noted by CCTD analysts at a previous market seminar. Meanwhile, domestic coal production has also been constrained due to safety inspections in key mining areas, resulting in a 1.7% decrease in output during the January-June period, amounting to 2.27 billion tons, according to NBS data.